Digital Media Week in Review: Google v. Microsoft; Splitting Up AOL? Ending the Writers’ Strike? Major Labels in China

Authored by Ned Sherman on February 9, 2008 - 9:46am.

DMW’s CEO & Publisher provides a wrap-up of the top stories of the week. Who’s hot, who’s not and what’s the industry buzz?

In the days following Microsoft’s (NASD: MSFT) announcement of its unsolicited $44.6 billion takeover bid for Yahoo (NASD: YHOO), much of the news focused on the battle between Google and Microsoft to color the other’s motives as anti-competitive. As reports surfaced that Yahoo may try to avoid being acquired by Microsoft by giving control of its search advertising to Google in exchange for a large revenue share (although nothing has made public by either Google or Yahoo on this), Microsoft reportedly began lobbying government officials to block any such deal between the two on antitrust grounds setting the stage for what is likely to be a long and public battle between Google and Microsoft over control of the Internet. For its part, Google chief legal officer, David Drummond, argued on the company’s blog that the Microsoft's Yahoo bid "raises troubling questions” and pointedly asked whether Microsoft could "now attempt to exert the same sort of inappropriate and illegal influence over the Internet that it did with the PC." While Yahoo has said that it is "evaluating a wide range of potential strategic alternatives,” many analysts believe that Microsoft will succeed in its bid, although it will face strict scrutiny from regulators in the United States and Europe.
Analysis: Google has shown in its swift opposition to Microsoft’s bid and possible counter proposal to partner with Yahoo on its search advertising business that it is not going to give up without a fight. For now it seems that Google will focus on coloring Microsoft’s motives as anti-competitive by reminding regulators and the public that we have seen this before from Microsoft in the PC software market and don’t want to have history repeat itself. While the argument plays well on the emotions of the public and regulators both here and in Europe, who spent years in bitter battles with Microsoft over its control of the PC software market, it is unlikely to succeed as long Google continues in its dominant position in the online advertising market. December numbers from Nielsen show that Google controlled a 56.3% market share in Internet search market the U.S., while Yahoo had just 17.7% and Microsoft 13.8% for a combined 31.5% market share. In the limited polling that we have done on our site, it appears that, while some are taking a wait and see attitude, many believe that a combined Microsoft-Yahoo would provide a better overall marketplace for online advertising. However, Google’s argument is stronger when it comes to web email and instant messenger services, which would be clearly dominated by a Microsoft-Yahoo merger. Expect a long and nasty fight as the two titans vie for positioning in the Internet advertising and communications market.

In my column last week, I discussed the possible implications of Microsoft’s takeover of Yahoo on Time Warner’s AOL division (NYSE: TWX) pointing out that it could negatively affect AOL's chances of merging with an online advertising powerhouse, something that the company has reportedly been working towards, although no obvious suitor has emerged. On Wednesday, new CEO Jeffrey Bewkes told analysts that the company plans to split AOL into two distinct businesses -- one operating its Internet access service and the other focused on its Web portal and online advertising – saying that the move “should significantly increase AOL's strategic options." Investors liked what they heard as shares rose slightly up 2%, closing at $15.71.
Analysis: This is an interesting story to watch. By splitting off its Internet access business, which has been in decline, AOL’s portal and advertising business, which has been the focus of its efforts in the last few years, should be a more attractive property for a potential merger or buy-out.

Members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) meet today (Saturday) to decide whether to accept a deal with studio executives and TV producers, which could potentially end the 3-month long strike and put writers back to work on Monday. As of the time of this writing, a deal has yet to be announced. For the a good summary of the proposed deal terms, see coverage from the Hollywood Reporter.

Back to back announcements involving the major labels’ digital strategy in China: On Tuesday, we heard that Universal Music Group, Sony BMG Music Entertainment (Hong Kong) (NYSE: SNE), and Warner Music Hong Kong (NYSE: WMG) filed new copyright infringement lawsuits against top Chinese search providers Baidu (NASD: BIDU), Sohu.com and Yahoo China (NASD: YHOO) over the labels’ demands that the search firms to remove links to unauthorized music files hosted on third-party sites. A day later it was announced that Google (NASD: GOOG) is in talks with Chinese digital music distributor Top100.cn to launch a free music download service in China, which would involve Universal Music Group and, possibly, Sony BMG, EMI and Warner Music. Analysis: The labels lost a lawsuit over "deep-linking" against Baidu in 2006, but since then the Chinese government introduced new regulations, which allowed the labels to win a similar case against Yahoo China and will be the grounds for its new suit against Baidu. Eager to put a lid on the rampant digital piracy and get a foot in the door in China’s digital music market, it appears that the majors have a precedent to win this new suit against Baidu, which would help to clear the way for the launch of the new Google-backed service there.

Other interesting stories of the week:
  • More from Yahoo: The company announced that it is throwing in the towel on its Yahoo Music Unlimited digital music service, and will replace it with Rhapsody, the competing on-demand streaming service offered by Rhapsody America, a joint venture between RealNetworks (NASD: RNWK) and Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) MTV Networks. Yahoo and Rhapsody also intend to collaborate on other digital music services, such as music downloads.
  • The Copyright Royalty Board (CRB) began hearing arguments from music publishers, record labels, and digital music distributors, on how much songwriters and music publishers should be paid when music is streamed or downloaded. There will be more discussion on this at Digital Music Forum East in NYC in few weeks. Speakers at the conference include DiMA head Jon Potter, RIAA General Counsel, Steve Marks and National Music Publishers Association President David Israelite. Get ready to rumble!
  • Major record label Warner Music Group (NYSE: WMG) posted a first quarter loss, but saw revenue from digital music sales climb 41.9% from a year ago to $132 million, and said digital now accounts for 14% of total revenue.
  • The U.S. Department of Justice has served major record labels Universal Music and Sony BMG with notices that seek information on Total Music, a project the majors are jointly working on that would purportedly offer a $5 per month subscription to their catalogs via mobile phones, digital music players and other platforms, Wired.com reported, citing the Music Ally newsletter. Such a pricing agreement between the major labels -- Warner Music (NYSE: WMG) and EMI are also reportedly interested in the project, and are themselves targets of information requests from the Justice Dept., Music Ally reports -- would likely raise antitrust concerns. The Justice Dept. previously investigated Universal and Sony Music's Pressplay music subscription service joint venture in 2001.
  • Video-sharing site Revver, which has raised a total of $12.7 million in financing to date, is now reportedly seek a sale of the company with an asking price of just $300,000 to $500,000, plus assumption of about $1 million in debt. Sounds like its time to pass the cup.

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