Digital Media Week in Review: Microsoft's Bid for Yahoo; Troubles for Google? Implications for AOL?
DMW’s CEO & Publisher provides a wrap-up of the top
stories of the week. Who’s hot, who’s not and what’s the industry buzz?
In my column last week, I predicted that there may be a
silver lining in Yahoo’s recent troubles and low share price in the form of a
possible takeover bid from rival Microsoft. Voilà! In a bold move
that sent ripples through Silicon Valley
before sunrise on Friday, Microsoft (NASD: MSFT) announced that it has made an unsolicited
$44.6 billion takeover bid for Yahoo (NASD: YHOO). The announcement of the
potential deal, which would give Yahoo's shareholders the option of taking $31
a share in cash (a 54% premium on YHOO's closing price) or an equal amount of
Microsoft stock, sent Yahoo’s stock, which had dropped below $20 a share
earlier in the week on news of more layoffs,
sharply up with a single day gain of $9.20 and ending the week at $28.38.
Analysis: The move by Microsoft
represents its stiffest challenge to Google (NASD: GOOG) in the online
advertising market and may single more troubles ahead for Google. On Thursday,
Google reported another quarter of solid earnings, but the stock didn't take
the usual 4-5% jump on the news. Instead, Google shares continued to fall
ending the week at $515.90. Google shares have fallen more than $200 a share
since November. Why the fall? Last March, Microsoft
CEO Steve Ballmer publicly accused Google of being a "one-trick pony"
that has not had much success in business areas outside search engine advertising.
With concerns that ad spending on things like travel, retail, etc. will suffer
in a recession, it appears that investors are starting to act on the fear that
a recession will have a negative impact on Google’s ad model. This is likely one
of the more important stories to watch in 2008.
Also on the watch list are the implications that a Microsoft/Yahoo deal
would have for Time Warner's AOL division. Since both Microsoft and Yahoo have
been mentioned as potential merger partners for AOL, a deal between the two
would likely eliminate two potential merger partners leaving fewer likely
suitors for AOL. On the positive side, Microsoft’s interest in, and the value
that it has placed on, Yahoo suggests a possible upside for AOL, who, with
falling subscription revenue, has assets that are increasingly comparable to Yahoo's. These are
two important stories to watch.
The other top stories of the week:
- XM
Satellite Radio (NASD: XMSR) said on Friday that it has settled
a lawsuit filed by major label Sony BMG (NYSE: SNE) relating to the
Pioneer Inno, a portable satellite radio with advanced recording features.
The financial terms of the settlement were not disclosed. XM, which is in the process of merging
with rival Sirius (as highlighted in last week’s column), now has settled
with three music companies over its radios with recording functionality,
following similar agreements in December with Universal Music Group and
Warner Music Group.
- More
Yahoo news: Maven Networks, a privately-held provider of technology for
advertising on Internet video, announced that it will be acquired
by Yahoo (NASD: YHOO) for about $150 million. Maven allows companies
to tap new sources of revenue from Internet video advertising and
syndication. The news, which came
prior to the announcement of Microsoft’s bid for Yahoo, would be seem to
be a positive move by Yahoo as it tries to complete with Google in the
online video market.
- More
mixed news for TiVo (NASD: TIVO): On Thursday, it was reported that the
U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has upheld
TiVo’s claim that rival EchoStar (NASD: DISH), operator of the DISH
Network satellite TV service, was infringing on one of its digital video
recorder patents, and must pay $74 million in damages, now $94 million
with accrued interest. While TiVo’s shares have been climbing for most of
the past year and seemed to be continuing to rise on news of the Court’s
decision, the stock took a drop after a Friedman Billings analyst cut his
rating on the stock to "Underperform" from "Market
Perform."
- Online
retail giant Amazon.com (NASD: AMZN) will acquire
Audible.com, a distributor of audiobooks and other spoken word audio
content, for $300 million.
- Over one-third
(36%) of U.S. television households are unaware of the looming
switchover to digital television broadcasting, set to take effect just
over a year from now, while "major confusion" exists among the
remaining consumers who are aware of the transition, according to a new
survey from Consumer Reports National Research Center. This will be a
topic of discussion at the prestigious Future of Television
conference in Los Angeles
in March.
- Qtrax announced
the launch of what it claimed
to be the first legal peer-to-peer file-sharing service with tracks from
all the major labels. However, since making the announcement at the
Midem conference in Cannes
earlier in the week, all of the majors stated that they have NOT licensed
Qtrax -- and the service remains offline.
What’s going on here?
As I said in my column last week, despite recent numbers showing a decline in the overall market for recorded music, don't expect the majors to jump too quickly to embrace new digital models. As long as there is a market for CD sales, you can bet on a cautious approach to unproven models like Qtrax. How to explain Qtrax jumping the gun on this announcement? Qtrax’s CEO Allan Klepfisz will be speaking at our Millennials Toronto
event next month, so we’ll make sure to ask him.
- Current Media, the new media TV and Web video network founded by former
Vice President Al Gore and Joel Hyatt, announced plans to file
for an initial public offering (IPO) of shares that could raise up to
$100 million. Current Media operates a cable TV network and website that
feature a mix of professionally-produced and user-generated content,
targeted at young adults.
I welcome your feedback and comments, which you can post
here or send to editorial@digitalmediawire.com
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