The firm sees a period of experimentation between 2007 and 2009, during which the ad-supported model will dominate.
But as more consumers connect their PCs to their TVs, spending on downloads will expand rapidly and exceed ad spending by 2011.
"The Internet is going to revolutionize the business of video distribution," said AMR president Tom Adams. "But in all the excitement about product launches by Wal-Mart, Amazon and Apple, people are getting giddy about how fast it will happen."
Apple recently released a new product, Apple TV, which allows users to access media on their computers from their televisions, while Wal-Mart and Amazon have launched their own video download stores.
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