DMW: What have been some of GamerMetrics most important findings over the past year.

Nick Williams: We could tell the Wii was going to be a huge hit and we could tell that Zelda was going to account for 85% of sales.  We knew this because of a combination of factors we track: Awareness for the titles, engagement in those titles, and purchase intent.  For the PS3, for example, all of those numbers were really low at launch.  Now it’s starting to build up since some of the more known titles are launching.  Software does drive the hardware in a lot of ways.

DMW: People talk a lot about the doom of the PS3, but if you play the games coming out down the line, it’s really incredible what that machine is capable of.

Nick: And that’s the stuff I think we’re going to start seeing.  The PS3 was okay at launch, then it dipped after that post-launch backlash, and now it’s starting to build back up again. 

DMW: So do you guys have a prediction about who is going to win the current console battle?

Scott Mucci: One of the biggest surprises to us, I think, was the strength of the Xbox 360 through the critical holiday period of 2006.  Microsoft marketed right through the launch of the Wii and PS3, they had a year head start on launching, their title library was fantastic and massive, they had Gears of War, two Clancey titles, a Call of Duty title, etc.  So right now, if you combine that momentum they have with a fantastic set of new IP’s for 2007 – BioShock, Mass Effect, Assassin’s Creek, and oh by the way, Grand Theft Auto IV in October, and oh by the way, Halo 3 in November.  It’s going to be hard to beat that kind of lineup. 

DMW: Now that Grand Theft Auto IV is no longer exclusive to Playstation, and Wii has Zelda and Microsoft has Halo, what’s Sony going to come up with?

Scott: The only exclusive they have left of that caliber is Metal Gear: Solid.  I guess you might consider Gran Turismo at that level.

Nick: But there have been problems with delaying that launch.  You have to think they’re planning something internally.

Jamie Berger: I mean reality has got to be setting in there.

DMW: What are your findings with console purchasing trends in terms of the average gamer?  That is, are you finding that gamers choose a console, and stick with that until the next console cycle, or do they buy more than one?  Do people consider buying all three?

Nick: That’s Ninentendo’s advantage in this space.  Because of the Wii’s price ($250), they have the ability to be a second choice for either console.  Everyone calls it the “Xbox Wii-60.”  There’s a far smaller group of people buying Xbox 360 and PS3. 

Scott: Another interesting combination is a PS3 and Nintendo DS or  Xbox 360 and Nintendo DS.  Occasionally someone buys a PSP.

Jamie: Everyone forgets that the DS, really, in terms of actual game play and units sold, is right up there. 

Scott: And the PS2 is actually still selling very well.  The price point for a PS2 is $129, which is much cheaper than a Wii.

DMW: People enjoy playing the Wii, but I’ve heard of people complaining that it becomes cumbersome in longer games, like Madden, where you potentially play for 3 straight hours or more.  Is that something that could hurt the Wii in the long run?

Nick: I think overcoming that novelty aspect is a big challenge for Nintendo.  We talk all the time about how they’ve ceded the hardcore market to Sony and Microsoft, and now they’re really going after the mass market gamer.  But the problem is they don’t have those mainstream titles yet.  It’s going to be a big challenge for them if they really want to expand to, say, girl gamers or granny gamers.  They’re going to have to get the right software up there to support their goals.  Right now, sure, everyone loves the Marios and the Zeldas, but is that really going to be what Nintendo needs to break that barrier? 

In the short term, things look great, best console launch in history.  But in the long term are they going to be able to keep it up?  I think software is the key to that.

Scott: They have big time pressures too.  Their console is really the least future-proof of the three.  I think there’s probably a lot of negative flack they’re getting from their third-party developer relationships.  So I think once they overcome that and get those third-party developers to put up those games that appeal to the mass market, then they’ll be on track.

Jamie: But Nintendo had a real problem in third-party relationships with the GameCube.  It was miserable.  The reality is now, if you look at the success of some of the Wii titles, money is talking.  Publishers are looking at the Wii right now going, “Wait a second, this is upside. I’m already looking at the PS3 as a challenge, and Xbox is doing good, but what’s going to give me upside?  I could really increment my sales by putting more of my resources behind this title.”  I personally think Nintendo will get through their challenges because this time around they’re going to have third-party support.  Everyone is seeing the buzz and the engagement from people who would never touch a video game platform.  What will be really exciting is when publishers start creating a larger ecosystem of games that can meet different needs.

It’s going to be a wild year.  This will be the first time in a long time, if ever, that you have three competitive, strong, healthy platforms.  The holiday is going to be crazy.

DMW: Let’s talk about women and games.  A lot of research is being done about it, mostly because the games industry is so large, yet largely so male-dominated.  Will one console do a better job than the others bridging the gender gap?

Nick: I think it will absolutely be the Wii.  I don’t see my girlfriend, for example, sitting down and playing Virtua Tennis on 360 with me, but she’ll absolutely play Wii tennis. 

Jamie: It’s hard to know and it depends if we’re talking about younger girls or adults.  If you’re talking about girls, Pokemon is just as popular with girls as it is boys.  When Pokemon for the Wii online comes out this year, it’s going to be gigantic.  Certainly what you see with the Wii is much more women participating in the platform, even if they weren’t the buyer. 

Now, when mom’s are buying it for kids, that’s when it will get interesting.  Right now there’s a scarcity issue.  Once the scarcity’s gone and you have parents buying it for their kids, that will be the interesting thing.  What happens the first time a mom picks up the remote and tries it?  Will she literally be engaged, or will all of this just end up being a fad?

Nick: I think it will have to be something that relates to their lifestyle in some way.  I don’t think you’ll see too many moms wasting their day playing games, unless it’s something really inventive that crosses over to other areas of women’s lives, that helps compliment their busy lifestyles. 

DMW: Will Xbox Live Arcade and the PS3’s casual game downloading features combat the Wii in the drive for female attention? 

Jamie: No one is going to buy a $600 platform to be able to download $10 games.  That’s the bottom line.  Every platform owner needs to offer these features, because that’s where the world is going.     

DMW: We’ve heard a lot about what the PS3 can do, what it’s capable of, but we’ve also heard the current set of games don’t even scratch the surface of its capacity.  Are we going to even going to see what this thing can do before the next console cycle comes around?

Nick: Sony’s in it for the long haul, that’s for sure.

Scott: PS3 definitely has the potential to be the most brilliant piece of technological innovation that no one ever bought.  Sony has to do a better job presenting the case for buying it and then demonstrating that.  There’s a lingering perception in the market that we want Sony to do more and show us more.  Show us why we should buy a $600 machine.

Nick: I think Sony underestimated how serious Microsoft was about gaming. 

 
Scott Goldberg