Future of Film: Is the DVD Dead?

Authored by Scott Goldberg on March 21, 2007 - 2:06pm.

From the Future of Film: UPDATED: Industry conversations for the past year have occasionally centered on the film distribution model – specifically one format that supports it, DVDs – and how it is changing. Today, on a panel entitled, “The Death of the Disc?” it appeared the answer to that question is no, the DVD is not dead…at least not for now.

With Microsoft (with Xbox), Sony (PS3), and Apple (iTV) entering and changing the space to become one in which internet connectivity to the television is the key, the question is relevant.

According to Ted Sarandos, Chief Creative Officer of Netflix, consumers still want to watch DVDs. But that hasn’t prevented the company from adding its “Watch Now” function – essentially movie streaming – to its homepage. Previously, Sarandos estimated the DVD’s death to be at least 5 years away.

The popular catch phrase of the day was, “The consumer will decide,” meaning platform choices will ultimately come down to adoption rate.

Larry Gerbrandt, SVP & GM for metrics company Nielsen Analytics, perhaps offered the most relevant note, saying that DVD penetration is still growing. He said that 90% of the home video market is on DVDs, a surprisingly low number is some ways. There’s still the 10% that will turn to DVDs from their ancient VHS players, not to mention those that only made the switch recently. Will that segment be willing and able to adopt internet movies any time soon?

Perhaps that’s the most important consideration of all when contemplating the DVD’s life (or death), and coming to a logical answer: It will die, it seems, when it has to; when alternative technology is superior. For now it’s hard to argue against that.

Scott Goldberg