Bill Tancer is a huge fan of American Idol, although I think that it’s using search data to predict the results that appeals to him more than the music itself. As he points out, the use of search data for such purposes is an art rather than a science, not least because a favourite contestant could throw it all away on the night with a poor performance. Another danger is that viewers may not be searching for a contestant because they like them, or it may be the case that their singing voice or personality it not what appeals most.

Back in the UK, Big Brother is finally over after almost 100 days. There were a lot of additional competitors this year - I think I’m right in counting 24 – and Brian was the surprise winner ahead of The Twins. Using Bill’s approach, I though it would be interesting to see if searches for competitors were biased in favour the winners, or whether other factors had a greater impact.

The table above shows the most searched for contestants during the last month of the show this year and last, and in both cases the eventual winner was not the most searched for. Indeed, Brian is not even in the top four. This year’s unexpected winner had the bookmakers jumping for joy, and UK traffic to gambling websites during the final weekend reached the same level as Grand National weekend.

So, the likelihood of a 'sure thing' (i.e. a Twins’ victory) perked the punters interest, but what about the rest of us? Despite some of the press reports, the picture is actually quite mixed. Traffic to the official homepage was down on last year – the website received 25% less traffic during its peak this year than last year’s peak.

Robin Goad

Robin Goad is Research Director, Hitwise UK. This piece was originally published on Hitwise analyst blog here.

Photo By Channel 4 UK