El Segundo, Calif. - Nintendo is expected to lead the next-generation console race by the end of this year, with a total installed base of 30.2 million Wii's, versus 25.7 Microsoft Xbox 360's and 20.3 million PlayStation 3's, but the Sony console is expected to make significant gains and eventually overtake its two rivals by 2011, according to a report from market research firm iSuppli.

"The Wii's performance illustrates the success of Nintendo's strategy of targeting casual users with an inexpensive console and entertaining titles, rather than addressing hard-core gamers by offering highly sophisticated and spectacular titles and systems," said iSuppli analyst Pam Tufegdzic.

However, iSuppli predicts that the PlayStation 3's installed base will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 39%, to reach 38.4 million by 2001, bettering both the Wii (20% CAGR; 37.7 million units) and Xbox 360 (15.4% CAGR; 32.3 million units).

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